NZD/USD to drift higher but at a more modest pace – MUFG

The New Zealand Dollar was close to unchanged in March. Economists at MUFG expect the Kiwi to lag as economy slows. 

RBNZ may be close to done

“The greater the banking sector turmoil, the greater the risk to global growth which would see NZD underperform as a high-beta G10 currency. This would be reinforced if the New Zealand economy weakens further.”

“One further 25 bps hike on 5th April appears likely but we would expect that to be the last. The OIS market still has 50 bps of tightening so as the economy weakens further, short-term yields could come further lower. This could see NZD/USD underperform but through the remainder of the year we would expect NZD/USD to drift higher but at a more modest pace.”

“NZD/USD Q2 2023 0.6300 Q3 2023 0.6400 Q4 2023 0.6600 Q4 2024 0.6500.”