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28 Nov 2014
Japanese, Eurozone inflation take center-stage - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the main events for this Friday, highlighting the deluge of Japanese data, while in the Eurozone, inflation data will take center-stage.
Key Quotes
"Japan has its usual month-end data deluge. Most interest should be in Oct national CPI and Oct IP. CPI is seen up 3.0% y/y (vs 3.2% in Sep), still being boosted by the sales tax rise. IP is expected to reverse some of the 2.9% m/m surge in Sep, -0.6% m/m (-1.7% y/y). Even these releases probably won’t move USD/JPY, let alone household spending, retail sales etc. Australia releases Oct private credit at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, seen up 0.4% m/m (median 0.5%). This should have no impact ahead of a very busy week, including GDP, retail sales, trade balance, the RBA meeting etc. India's Q3 GDP is the Asian highlight, seen slipping to 5.1% y/y."
"The advance Nov reading on Eurozone CPI is due in the London morning, with consensus 0.3% y/y, after 0.4% y/y in Oct. Although energy prices are playing a key role in lowering headline inflation, the ECB’s inflation target is indeed headline, not core CPI, so it cannot brush off such readings at next Thursday’s meeting."
"On Sunday it’s the Swiss referendum on forcing the Swiss National Bank to hold at least 20% of its reserves in gold, never sell it and physically store all the gold in Switzerland. The SNB opposes the proposal and has said it could limit its ability to defend the EUR/CHF1.20 floor. Polls indicate the proposal will be clearly rejected but there still could be a moderate relief bounce in EUR/CHF if so."
Key Quotes
"Japan has its usual month-end data deluge. Most interest should be in Oct national CPI and Oct IP. CPI is seen up 3.0% y/y (vs 3.2% in Sep), still being boosted by the sales tax rise. IP is expected to reverse some of the 2.9% m/m surge in Sep, -0.6% m/m (-1.7% y/y). Even these releases probably won’t move USD/JPY, let alone household spending, retail sales etc. Australia releases Oct private credit at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, seen up 0.4% m/m (median 0.5%). This should have no impact ahead of a very busy week, including GDP, retail sales, trade balance, the RBA meeting etc. India's Q3 GDP is the Asian highlight, seen slipping to 5.1% y/y."
"The advance Nov reading on Eurozone CPI is due in the London morning, with consensus 0.3% y/y, after 0.4% y/y in Oct. Although energy prices are playing a key role in lowering headline inflation, the ECB’s inflation target is indeed headline, not core CPI, so it cannot brush off such readings at next Thursday’s meeting."
"On Sunday it’s the Swiss referendum on forcing the Swiss National Bank to hold at least 20% of its reserves in gold, never sell it and physically store all the gold in Switzerland. The SNB opposes the proposal and has said it could limit its ability to defend the EUR/CHF1.20 floor. Polls indicate the proposal will be clearly rejected but there still could be a moderate relief bounce in EUR/CHF if so."