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5 Dec 2014
US NFP: Risks are to the topside - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - According to RBS FX Strategists, anecdotal evidence suggests that due to the earlier start of the holiday season, the might have been an increase in hiring, potentially leading to a topside surprise on Friday's US NFP.
Key Quotes
"With the holiday shopping season in full swing, there is a sense of added uncertainty around this week’s non-farm payrolls release around the timing of seasonal hires."
"Anecdotal evidence suggests that the earlier start to the holiday season led to increased hiring demand in November, which may bias the results of November NFP to the topside relative to the prevailing trend."
"Should that boost in seasonal hiring in some categories come to fruition, it may edge non-farm payrolls growth to an above-trend 250K advance. We also forecast the unemployment rate to slip from 5.8% to 5.7%."
"We think USD strength on the back of improving growth fundamentals and associated monetary policy divergence, while seemingly a consensus and well-subscribed view, has scope to continue."
Key Quotes
"With the holiday shopping season in full swing, there is a sense of added uncertainty around this week’s non-farm payrolls release around the timing of seasonal hires."
"Anecdotal evidence suggests that the earlier start to the holiday season led to increased hiring demand in November, which may bias the results of November NFP to the topside relative to the prevailing trend."
"Should that boost in seasonal hiring in some categories come to fruition, it may edge non-farm payrolls growth to an above-trend 250K advance. We also forecast the unemployment rate to slip from 5.8% to 5.7%."
"We think USD strength on the back of improving growth fundamentals and associated monetary policy divergence, while seemingly a consensus and well-subscribed view, has scope to continue."