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6 Jan 2015
Eurozone may see the first negative inflation print since October 2009 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team anticipates the Eurozone headline inflation to show a -0.1 print, which may be the first negative inflation print for eurozone since October 2009.
Key Quotes
“Assuming that oil prices remain at their current levels over the next several months, we would expect the direct impact of oil to dominate. Especially for December we can safely assume that there are still limited second round effects.”
“Taking into account the recent developments in commodity prices and exchange rates we expect the energy component in HICP to fall from -2.6% in November to -8% YoY in December. Together with a fall in unprocessed food inflation, this would be sufficient to take headline inflation just below the zero level.“
“This would also fit with the preliminary data released in Germany, Spain and Belgium. German headline inflation, published yesterday, dropped from 0.6% in November to 0.2% in December. Energy-related components were mostly responsible for that drop.“
“All in all, a -0.1% print for eurozone headline inflation is the most likely outcome in our view (with core inflation stable at 0.7% YoY). This figure will be released tomorrow 7 January at 11:00 CET.”
Key Quotes
“Assuming that oil prices remain at their current levels over the next several months, we would expect the direct impact of oil to dominate. Especially for December we can safely assume that there are still limited second round effects.”
“Taking into account the recent developments in commodity prices and exchange rates we expect the energy component in HICP to fall from -2.6% in November to -8% YoY in December. Together with a fall in unprocessed food inflation, this would be sufficient to take headline inflation just below the zero level.“
“This would also fit with the preliminary data released in Germany, Spain and Belgium. German headline inflation, published yesterday, dropped from 0.6% in November to 0.2% in December. Energy-related components were mostly responsible for that drop.“
“All in all, a -0.1% print for eurozone headline inflation is the most likely outcome in our view (with core inflation stable at 0.7% YoY). This figure will be released tomorrow 7 January at 11:00 CET.”