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23 Apr 2015
Risks are for a higher China Apr HSBC flash PMI - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key data releases for Thursday, noting that there are risks are for a higher China Apr HSBC flash PMI number from residual seasonality.
Key Quotes
In Australia, we will see the NAB Q1 business survey. This is mostly an aggregate of the monthly releases, and with the Mar report already out, there should be little to move markets.
RBNZ assistant governor McDermott will be speaking on inflation at 12:30pm NZ/10:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. While this will be of interest given recent market chatter on the risks of shifting to an easing bias from neutral, we are only a week away from the next policy meeting so he may well be cautious in his language.
China Apr HSBC flash PMI will be released at 9:45am Beijing/11:45am Syd. Consensus is for it to remain at 49.6. Risks are for a higher number from residual seasonality after a much stronger than expected Feb print and weaker Mar. However, other data has suggested softness and it is likely too early for the most recent RRR cut to be reflected here. Singapore Mar headline CPI, at 1pm Sing/3pm Syd, is expected fall to -0.5%y/y from -0.3% in Feb.
The market is expecting another strong UK retail sales print, ex autos at 0.5%m/m in Mar, 5.5%y/y, continuing the stronger trend over the past few years. We will also see Eurozone advance Apr PMIs. US jobless claims this week will include the Apr nonfarm payrolls survey. The market is expecting Mar new home sales to drop 4.5% after surging from Nov to Feb. With homebuilder confidence struggling so far in 2015, we expect an unimpressive near-term outlook for new home sales.
Key Quotes
In Australia, we will see the NAB Q1 business survey. This is mostly an aggregate of the monthly releases, and with the Mar report already out, there should be little to move markets.
RBNZ assistant governor McDermott will be speaking on inflation at 12:30pm NZ/10:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. While this will be of interest given recent market chatter on the risks of shifting to an easing bias from neutral, we are only a week away from the next policy meeting so he may well be cautious in his language.
China Apr HSBC flash PMI will be released at 9:45am Beijing/11:45am Syd. Consensus is for it to remain at 49.6. Risks are for a higher number from residual seasonality after a much stronger than expected Feb print and weaker Mar. However, other data has suggested softness and it is likely too early for the most recent RRR cut to be reflected here. Singapore Mar headline CPI, at 1pm Sing/3pm Syd, is expected fall to -0.5%y/y from -0.3% in Feb.
The market is expecting another strong UK retail sales print, ex autos at 0.5%m/m in Mar, 5.5%y/y, continuing the stronger trend over the past few years. We will also see Eurozone advance Apr PMIs. US jobless claims this week will include the Apr nonfarm payrolls survey. The market is expecting Mar new home sales to drop 4.5% after surging from Nov to Feb. With homebuilder confidence struggling so far in 2015, we expect an unimpressive near-term outlook for new home sales.