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27 Apr 2015
Further easing expected by CBR – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, sees the Russian central bank lowering the benchmark rate by 100 bp on Thursday.
Key Quotes
“At the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) this Thursday (30 April), we expect the key rate to be cut by 100bp to 13.00%”.
“However, given the recent strength in the ruble, we think there is a clear risk of the CBR cutting more than this, although we think they will err on the side of caution and just do 100bp”.
“The consensus is for a 100bp cut, but 11 out of the 33 economists surveyed expect more than 100bp”.
“They will want to see more evidence that, following its strong rally, the ruble is really stabilizing”.
“Furthermore, inflation is still running at elevated levels (16.9% Y/Y in March)”.
“However, we think that it is a close call and see a clear risk of cuts greater than 100bp materialising on Thursday”.
Key Quotes
“At the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) this Thursday (30 April), we expect the key rate to be cut by 100bp to 13.00%”.
“However, given the recent strength in the ruble, we think there is a clear risk of the CBR cutting more than this, although we think they will err on the side of caution and just do 100bp”.
“The consensus is for a 100bp cut, but 11 out of the 33 economists surveyed expect more than 100bp”.
“They will want to see more evidence that, following its strong rally, the ruble is really stabilizing”.
“Furthermore, inflation is still running at elevated levels (16.9% Y/Y in March)”.
“However, we think that it is a close call and see a clear risk of cuts greater than 100bp materialising on Thursday”.