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18 Oct 2013
Flash: NZD/USD set for downtrend towards 0.76 in 2014 - BNZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - A recovery on the USD lost value combined with a NZ commodity price correction, should deliver a lower NZD/USD next year, notes Mike Jones, Currency Strategist at BNZ.
Key Quotes
"Our short-term valuation model estimates the end of Fed QE would knock around 6 cents off the 'fair-value' of the NZD/USD. A 7% commodity price 'correction' would shave off another 2 cents."
"If this analysis is to be believed our end 2014 forecast of 0.7600 looks about right."
"Admittedly, recent developments have placed upside risk on our NZD/USD forecast track. Fed tapering looks set to be delayed again and NZ commodity prices may hold up at elevated levels for longer."
Key Quotes
"Our short-term valuation model estimates the end of Fed QE would knock around 6 cents off the 'fair-value' of the NZD/USD. A 7% commodity price 'correction' would shave off another 2 cents."
"If this analysis is to be believed our end 2014 forecast of 0.7600 looks about right."
"Admittedly, recent developments have placed upside risk on our NZD/USD forecast track. Fed tapering looks set to be delayed again and NZ commodity prices may hold up at elevated levels for longer."