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8 Dec 2015
Japan to grow in 2016 - Nomura
FXStreet (Guatemala) - In respect to Japan, analysts at Nomura explained that they forecast a slight economic slowdown in 2015 Q4, but growing momentum thereafter.
Key Quotes:
"The Japanese economy registered q-q growth in the three key categories of private consumption, private capex, and exports in 2015 Q3. Looking ahead, we expect real GDP growth to slow to +0.6% q-q annualized in 2015 Q4.
Given that the first set of preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed negative q-q contributions from input and work-in-progress inventories and product inventories were also down in October, we think that private-sector inventories will hinder real GDP growth for the second consecutive quarter in 2015 Q4, making a contribution of -0.5ppt q-q annualized.
Meanwhile, the survey of manufacturers’ production forecasts and the historical deviation between forecasts and actual figures have led us to forecast growth in industrial production of only 0.6% q-q in 2015 Q4 even though October industrial production was up m-m.
However, we expect real GDP growth to remain at 1.5–2.0% q-q annualized from 2016 Q1 onwards as inventory corrections and the household income climate improve alongside corporate earnings."
Key Quotes:
"The Japanese economy registered q-q growth in the three key categories of private consumption, private capex, and exports in 2015 Q3. Looking ahead, we expect real GDP growth to slow to +0.6% q-q annualized in 2015 Q4.
Given that the first set of preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed negative q-q contributions from input and work-in-progress inventories and product inventories were also down in October, we think that private-sector inventories will hinder real GDP growth for the second consecutive quarter in 2015 Q4, making a contribution of -0.5ppt q-q annualized.
Meanwhile, the survey of manufacturers’ production forecasts and the historical deviation between forecasts and actual figures have led us to forecast growth in industrial production of only 0.6% q-q in 2015 Q4 even though October industrial production was up m-m.
However, we expect real GDP growth to remain at 1.5–2.0% q-q annualized from 2016 Q1 onwards as inventory corrections and the household income climate improve alongside corporate earnings."