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6 May 2016
US: NFP expected to rise by 200k in Apr - Westpac
Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the consensus for US Apr non-farm payrolls is 200k, after 215k in Mar and 245k in Feb.
Key Quotes
“On the positive side are the 5 week gap between survey weeks, very low jobless claims and a bounce in the services ISM employment index. Potential negative influences include the strikingly weak 156k reading on ADP private payrolls and the mild winter, which might mean Feb and Mar were boosted by hiring in retail and construction being pulled forward from Apr-May.
The separately calculated unemployment rate is expected to tick down from 5.0% to 4.9%, though consensus was also for 4.9% last month. The employment report is always important to the Fed and usually produces at least passing volatility. But since there is another report before the FOMC’s 15 June meeting, the April data doesn’t seem vital for USD.”
Key Quotes
“On the positive side are the 5 week gap between survey weeks, very low jobless claims and a bounce in the services ISM employment index. Potential negative influences include the strikingly weak 156k reading on ADP private payrolls and the mild winter, which might mean Feb and Mar were boosted by hiring in retail and construction being pulled forward from Apr-May.
The separately calculated unemployment rate is expected to tick down from 5.0% to 4.9%, though consensus was also for 4.9% last month. The employment report is always important to the Fed and usually produces at least passing volatility. But since there is another report before the FOMC’s 15 June meeting, the April data doesn’t seem vital for USD.”