US NFP Preview: what to expect of EUR/USD

It’s Non-farm Payrolls day. Market consensus expects the US economy to have added 175K jobs during last month, leaving behind May’s miserable 38K print, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 4.8% from 4.7%.

All eyes will also be on the wage growth, with Average Hourly Earnings expected to have risen at a monthly 0.2%, matching the previous reading and taking the annual advance to 2.7%.

In view of strategists at TD Securities, “Despite the forecasted rebound in headline employment in June, the wider backdrop for the labor market remains soft. Relative to the brisk pace set earlier this year, we anticipate the trend pace of hiring to slow over the coming months in reflection of a labor market that is approaching full capacity. While this is a welcome development for the Fed, their focus is elsewhere as concerns over low inflation and the risk to growth from global shocks dominate”.

Regarding FX, EUR/USD remains almost exclusively influenced by ongoing and potential consequences from the recent ‘Brexit’ vote, and today’s results in Payrolls – banning any surprise regardless of its direction – risk to be watered down by the broader context. Anyway, the initial up barrier lies at the critical 200-day sma around the 1.1100 handle followed by 1.1180, where today sits the base of the 6-month rising channel. On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.1030, recent weekly lows, followed by post-‘Brexit’ low at 1.0913.