CAD: GDP likely to surge by an above-consensus 0.5% m/m – RBC CM

Sue Trinh, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that data risk will increase considerably today with the release of the July GDP report of Canada.

Key Quotes

“RBC is forecasting an above-consensus print of 0.5% m/m (cons. 0.3%, prev. 0.6%) on the back of an expected 4.5% surge in mining output following the 4% jump in June as oil production returned online after temporary shutdowns at many oil sand projects in May due to the Alberta wildfires.

A rise in manufacturing and retail volumes is also expected to underpin the July number, while wholesale volumes were largely unchanged. Solid increases in overall GDP in June and July are key factors supporting our forecast for Q3 annualized GDP growth to rise 3.7% after the wild fire related 1.6% decline in Q2. USD/CAD features trading range support at 1.2924 and resistance at 1.3258.”