UK: Chancellor’s party conference speech eyed – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the UK’s new Chancellor’s words will be followed closely for clues about the way in which he will “reset” fiscal policy at the Autumn Statement on 23 November.

Key Quotes

“There will of course also be a widespread yearning for any detail on the broader Brexit economic strategy and negotiations (the same goes for the Prime Minister’s speech on Wednesday) although we don’t necessarily hold out much hope that this will be the point at which significant details are unveiled. As far as fiscal policy goes we will be watching to see if the Chancellor follows up on his comments in the summer that pointed towards the prospect for increased public sector investment.

We anticipate a return to the old looser fiscal rule which permitted borrowing to invest, but again, it isn’t clear whether the Chancellor will give that much away seven weeks before the Autumn Statement.”