Super Thursday featuring UK elections and ECB looms – ANZ

It’s all happening in the next 24 hours, and markets have been on edge all week awaiting the coming events including the ECB and UK elections, suggest analysts at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“First, the ECB decision and commentary will shed light on how long the foot will remain flat on the floor. “For a while yet” is the consensus, with an expectation that the inflation forecast will be cut despite a small lift in growth forecasts.”

“Second, former FBI Director James Comey will testify to the Senate committee – headlines are already being generated from the publication of his testimony on the Senate website. Any further negative headlines for US President Trump will cause markets to negatively reassess the likelihood of his policy agenda – of most interest for markets, tax and regulatory reform – passing.”

“What’s more, UK election results will come in – polls have suggested an ever-tighter race. Meanwhile, geopolitics remains a source of headlines, with claims yesterday that Russian hackers planted stories in Qatar’s main news website claiming leaders had praised Iran and Israel, prompting the recent diplomatic spat that hit oil prices. That’s taking fake news to a whole new level. Meanwhile volatility remains out for the count, despite a plethora of risks and structural weakness in a number of economies, particularly around debt levels. Could today finally ruffle market feathers? Plenty of other events have failed to do so. History suggests that at some point complacency will come a cropper, but picking the timing of that is challenging, to say the least."