When are the German IFO surveys and how they could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Climate Overview

The German Ifo surveys for December are lined up for release later today at 9GMT. The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to remain steady at 117.5 in Dec. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen slightly higher at 124.7 this month, while the Ifo Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to ease to 110.7 in the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

 How could affect EUR/USD?

The spot could make a sustained breakthrough above the 1.18 handle on an upbeat headline figure, while a retreat towards 1.1750 psychological levels cannot be ruled out on a disappointing print.

According to Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, Technically, “EUR/USD last week sold off to and recovered from the 1.1712 21st November low. The market is sidelined above here. A close below 1.1712 the recent low should be enough to negate upside pressure and allow for slippage back to the 1.1553 7th November low. We also note hefty resistance, which extends from 1.1880 to the 1.1976/78.6% retracement. Initial resistance lies at 1.1880 the 12th October high and while capped here a negative bias will remain.”

Key notes

German IFO and Euro area wage growth amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

European FX Outlook: German IFO business sentiment set to end 2017 at record high

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).