NZD/USD is exploring the downside beneath 4H 200-MA

• The RBNZ lowered its inflation forecasts.
• NZD/USD holds below 4-hour 200-MA, hit a fresh post-RBNZ low of 0.7206.

NZD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.7210 after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged as expected, but cut inflation forecasts amid slower growth.

A minor recovery that ensued ran out of steam at 0.7257 and the pair fell back below the 4-hour 200-MA of 0.7229. Currently, the spot is trading at 0.7208 levels, having clocked a new post-RBNZ low of 0.7202 just a few minutes ago.

The RBNZ projected that interest rates will likely stay at record lows until mid-2019. Further, the central bank pushed now sees inflation reaching the midpoint of its 1-3 percent target in the third quarter of 2020 - two years later than previously expected.

Also, RBNZ's McDermott said the bank could look through volatile CPI readings as inflation expectations remain stable and warned that a drop in inflation could trigger a rate cut.

Thus, Kiwi is exploring the downside under the 4-hour 200-MA. However, break below 0.72 remains elusive for now.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

A break below 0.72 (psychological level) would expose support at 0.7185 (38.2% Fib R of Dec-Jan rally). Acceptance below the same will likely strengthen the bear grip and yield sustained move lower to 0.71-0.7070 (50-day MA).

On the other hand, a move above the session high of 0.7239 would add credence to the oversold nature of the RSI, leading to a quick move higher to the downward sloping 5-day MA and 10-day MA of 0.7272 and 0.7313, respectively.