US exports will accelerate, but don’t expect a “boom” - Wells Fargo

Economists at Wells Fargo, forecast that U.S. exports will accelerate through next year, but they don’t expect a sustained run of “boom” years. They see confrontational trade policy posing a potential downside risk to export growth.

Key Quotes: 

“Following two disappointing years, American export growth rebounded in 2017 as global economic growth strengthened and the dollar weakened versus most other currencies. We forecast that U.S. exports will accelerate through next year, but we are not expecting a sustained run of “boom” years such as American exporters experienced during much of the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century.”

“The wheels of global commerce were greased in those years by trade liberalization and by the fragmentation of the production process. Those export-enhancing factors have stalled in recent years.”

“Solid economic growth in most of America’s trading partners and further dollar depreciation should underpin U.S. export growth in 2018 and 2019. But, the more confrontational approach to trade policy that the United States has adopted poses potential downside risks to U.S. export growth in coming years.”