BOE's Ramsden: Structural shocks to the economy from Brexit can’t be offset by monetary policy
BOE Deputy Governor David Ramsden, during a scheduled speech in Cambridge, was noted saying that structural shocks to the economy from Brexit can't be offset by monetary policy.
Key quotes:
• Weak productivity remains a key consideration of monetary policy
• MPC views weakness and uncertainty of UK productivity as a key consideration for monetary policy
• Pace of productivity influences what happens to inflation
• Most recent data show signs of productivity growth rising in the second half of 2017
• Still no confirmation that productivity pickup is sustained in the near-term
• UK business investment has been unusually weak relative to past recoveries
• MPC's judgement is that productivity growth will settle at just over 1% over the next three years
• MPC's view is that the economy's speed limit is likely to be around 1½%
• There are significant risks in both directions to the outlook for productivity
• Naturally lower productivity growth, and dampening effect of Brexit are risks to productivity
• A clearer transition path and future trading arrangements post-Brexit, could reduce uncertainty
• Latest evidence from Bank's Decision Maker Panel Survey suggests impact of Brexit holding back business investment growth may be less in 2018 than 2017