AUD/USD negative, room for a test of 0.7637 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, keeps the negative outlook on the pair, with the likeliness of a test of 0.7637.

Key Quotes

“AUD/USD maintains a negative bias. It has recently eroded the 200 day ma at .7787 and remains on course for the .7637/78.6% retracement and the .7581 2016-2018 uptrend. However there are a couple of warning signals – the Elliott wave count is saying this is the end of the move lower AND the TD perfected set up on the daily chart is another warning signal SO we will again tighten our stops on our short position”.

“Rallies should find the 200 day ma at .7787 now acts as resistance. Above here Initial resistance is last week’s high at .7892”.

“The February high at .7988/91 guards the key resistance which lies at .8124/62 (the September 2017 high, the May 2015 high and the long term 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from 2014)”.