US: Consumer inflation expectations rising modestly - Nomura

According to the NY Fed’s April Survey of Consumer Expectations, median one-year ahead consumer inflation expectations for US economy rose modestly from 2.75% to 2.97% in April, notes the research team at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“The slight pick-up in short-term inflation expectations was broad-based across income and numeracy groups and may have been influenced by the recent advances in oil prices. This appears consistent with a modest increase in one-year ahead expected gasoline price change in the NY Fed survey and with the University of Michigan’s preliminary May survey which showed a similar pick-up in short-term inflation and gas price expectations.”

“Median three-year ahead consumer inflation expectations rose marginally from 2.91% to 2.97%, which has been trending up slowly since August 2017. However, persistent increases in longer-term inflation expectations remain unlikely at this point.”