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30 May 2014
AUD/USD: Bullish outside day, 0.9325/30 next key level
FXStreet (Bali) - AUD/USD ends the day printing a sizeable outside day followung yet again a downside failure near the 0.92 level.
From a daily perspective, the bullish formation suggests that further upside is now more probable should buyers manage to break a key resistance area ahead at 0.9325/30, confluence of varies fibonacci retracements (from the .94-.9210 and .9750-.8655 bear legs).
On the intraday charts, we have seen buyers committed to reinstate long position on the retest of 0.9275 broken-resistance-turned-support, suggesting that there is some solid interest to keep the rally going. Notice that the bounce off 0.9275 was quite vigorous in nature, further reinforcing the bullish bias for the days ahead.
Looking at a possible bullish scenario, a breakout of 0.9325/30 would allow the next fib retrac (74.6/76.8) at 0.9360/65 to come into focus, ahead of a possible retest of 0.9390 up to 0.9410, sequence of highs from May. Only above the latter will open the doors for 0.9450/55.
On the contrary, for bears to regain the upper hand, a break below 0.9275 is a pre-requisite (needs to be used as resistance afterwards) ahead of 0.9260 (50% fib Thurs up-leg), 0.9240 (intraday swing high). Only when below 0.9240, bears can realistically start thinking about another attack towards 0.92/0.9210, with a break of this 92 round number critical to cause some serious technical damage.
On a fundamental note, for those short term traders in the Aussie holding positions ahead of the weekend, they should be reminded that China's national PMI on Saturday and China's HSBC PMI on Monday are key risk events that will probably cause some wild swings in the pair.
From a daily perspective, the bullish formation suggests that further upside is now more probable should buyers manage to break a key resistance area ahead at 0.9325/30, confluence of varies fibonacci retracements (from the .94-.9210 and .9750-.8655 bear legs).
On the intraday charts, we have seen buyers committed to reinstate long position on the retest of 0.9275 broken-resistance-turned-support, suggesting that there is some solid interest to keep the rally going. Notice that the bounce off 0.9275 was quite vigorous in nature, further reinforcing the bullish bias for the days ahead.
Looking at a possible bullish scenario, a breakout of 0.9325/30 would allow the next fib retrac (74.6/76.8) at 0.9360/65 to come into focus, ahead of a possible retest of 0.9390 up to 0.9410, sequence of highs from May. Only above the latter will open the doors for 0.9450/55.
On the contrary, for bears to regain the upper hand, a break below 0.9275 is a pre-requisite (needs to be used as resistance afterwards) ahead of 0.9260 (50% fib Thurs up-leg), 0.9240 (intraday swing high). Only when below 0.9240, bears can realistically start thinking about another attack towards 0.92/0.9210, with a break of this 92 round number critical to cause some serious technical damage.
On a fundamental note, for those short term traders in the Aussie holding positions ahead of the weekend, they should be reminded that China's national PMI on Saturday and China's HSBC PMI on Monday are key risk events that will probably cause some wild swings in the pair.