Germany: Virus cracks beneath surface – Deutsche Bank

The asynchronous global development of the Covid-19 pandemic and lasting impediments to global trade will make the German recovery less dynamic than expected, per Deutsche Bank.

Key quotes

“We expect German GDP to decline by 9% this year and to expand by about 4% in 2021.”

“With weaker-than-expected March hard data and shocking April survey data, we now see Q2 GDP falling by 14% q/q.”

“Within Europe, Germany shows the smallest deterioration and was able to keep more construction and industry open under its lockdown. However, we still expect industrial production to fall by roughly 10% to 15% in real terms this year.”