USD/JPY: Risk stays seen lower for an eventual test of 104.00 – Credit Suisse

USD/JPY strength has been capped at the ‘neckline’ to its top at 105.03/10 and the Credit Suisse analyst team bias stays lower for an eventual test of the 104.00 September low.

See: USD/JPY: Attention is on the 104.00 September low – Commerzbank

Key quotes

“USD/JPY strength has been capped at the ‘neckline’ to its top and 13-day average at 105.03/10 and with the downtrend from early July still intact the overall risk stays seen lower.” 

“Support is seen initially at 104.65, then the uptrend at 104.53/47. Below here should see a move to 104.34 and then the ‘measured top objective’ and September low at 104.00. Whilst we would again expect buyers to show here, a break would suggest we are seeing a more significant turn lower with support seen next at the 78.6% retracement of the 202 upmove at 103.43.” 

“Above 105.03/10 would warn of a deeper rebound with resistance seen next at 105.17/19, then 105.33, but with the broader risk still seen lower while below 105.65/75.”