US Dollar to clear recent weak period unscathed – Reuters Poll

“The US dollar is set to clear its recent weak period unscathed and remain dominant because the number of reasons supporting it, including its safe-haven status, still strongly outweigh any reason to sell,” according to the latest Reuters poll.

Key findings

Risk assets, which had their worst start to the year since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, pushed the dollar to a nearly two-decade high last month.”

A minor rebound in stocks last week partly held the dollar back from retaking those levels and got many talking about a snap in the trend. But most say it's too soon to discuss that.

Indeed, a near two-thirds majority of strategists, 28 of 44, said the dollar's recent pullback would last less than three months.

Among those, 16 said it would die down as early as end-June. Six said three to six months, three said six to 12 months. The remaining seven chose over a year.

The latest positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed speculators were net long on the U.S. dollar. The trend that started nearly a year ago was expected to stay in place.

Nearly a two-thirds majority of analysts, 25 of 39, who answered an additional question said strategies of going long the dollar and shorting either emerging or major currencies would dominate trading over the next three months.

But the wider poll of nearly 60 currency strategists reiterated the view the dollar will weaken marginally over the 12-month horizon.

Also read: US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Analysis: Reaches a seven-day high around 102.731, on risk-aversion